{"id":44801,"date":"2019-06-28T15:36:25","date_gmt":"2019-06-28T15:36:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/80000hours.org\/?post_type=podcast&#038;p=44801"},"modified":"2025-10-13T16:12:16","modified_gmt":"2025-10-13T16:12:16","slug":"philip-tetlock-forecasting-research","status":"publish","type":"podcast","link":"https:\/\/80000hours.org\/podcast\/episodes\/philip-tetlock-forecasting-research\/","title":{"rendered":"Accurately predicting the future is central to absolutely everything. 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Phil Tetlock has spent 40 years studying how to do it better. | 80,000 Hours<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/80000hours.org\/podcast\/episodes\/philip-tetlock-forecasting-research\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Accurately predicting the future is central to everything. Here&#039;s how you can do it better.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Prof Tetlock has spent 40 years studying accurate forecasting, collecting 1,000,000s of predictions from 10,000s of participants.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/80000hours.org\/podcast\/episodes\/philip-tetlock-forecasting-research\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"80,000 Hours\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/80000Hours\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-10-13T16:12:16+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/80000hours.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/06\/Screenshot-2019-06-28-at-16.43.31-1.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1454\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"944\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"Lessons from 40 years studying how you can better predict the future\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"Prof Tetlock has collected 1,000,000s of predictions from 10,000s of participants to learn what kinds of people do and don&#039;t have real foresight.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:image\" content=\"https:\/\/80000hours.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/06\/Screenshot-2019-06-28-at-16.43.31-1.png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@80000hours\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/80000hours.org\\\/podcast\\\/episodes\\\/philip-tetlock-forecasting-research\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/80000hours.org\\\/podcast\\\/episodes\\\/philip-tetlock-forecasting-research\\\/\",\"name\":\"Accurately predicting the future is central to absolutely everything. 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